MIT Has Predicted that Society Will Collapse in 2040

Economics Explained
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Patrick Romero
Patrick Romero 4 gün önce
“This crippling of individuals I consider the worst evil of capitalism. Our whole educational system suffers from this evil. An exaggerated competitive attitude is inculcated into the student, who is trained to worship acquisitive success as a preparation for his future career.” ― Albert Einstein, Why Socialism?
Virgilius 4 gün önce
We are not going to subscribe to this heap of nonsense!
Entasis 5 gün önce
@Fabreeze The Fainting Goat Holy Germanic Empire and Charlemagne a french like me would say hold your horses from Constantinople boya ;)
Fabreeze The Fainting Goat
1:10 correction the Roman empire didn't collapse it moved. East to form the East Roman Empire or the bizantines to be exact.
Aidan Margarson
Aidan Margarson 10 gün önce
@Space ToadChaos doesn't necessarily apply, this is a nonlinear system but it's not acting without controlled feedback, from an intelligence ie us
Sean Whearty
Sean Whearty Aylar önce
Hey guys. If we work really hard, we can achieve that goal by 2030
1 2 gün önce
@Thessalin 😄😄
1 2 gün önce
Thats an awesome answer😁😁
Richard Daniel
Richard Daniel 3 gün önce
Make America Forest Again
Anthony Berardi
Anthony Berardi 15 gün önce
I hope so. Maybe 2025. Sick of life.
Alana Phillips
Alana Phillips 16 gün önce
Maybe enough of us will get extra credit that we can get it by 2025!
Michael McGrath
Michael McGrath 29 gün önce
I was 20 when the Limits to Growth was published. I really did not expect our civilisation to endure until today. I am constantly gobsmacked at how résiliant and innovative humans are, but I’m not encouraged by the general ambivalence and ignorance of our world “leaders”. I’ll be ninety by 2040, if I’m lucky. I’m much more concerned for my children and grandchildren’s future. As they say, “There is no planet B.”
breci bros
breci bros 6 saatler önce
Lol there are alot of edgy teenagers in this comment section
Nopey Nope
Nopey Nope 2 gün önce
They'll be fine. Civilizations change all the time, that's not "collapse".
Patrick Romero
Patrick Romero 4 gün önce
“This crippling of individuals I consider the worst evil of capitalism. Our whole educational system suffers from this evil. An exaggerated competitive attitude is inculcated into the student, who is trained to worship acquisitive success as a preparation for his future career.” ― Albert Einstein, Why Socialism?
Wilfred Wayne
Wilfred Wayne 5 gün önce
I'll be 43
l m
l m 7 gün önce
Some of us probably wouldn't be alive nor have any children even.
TheSoundOfBand Instrumental
"Here you go, have an ad." "What a good little consumer you are." I died a little.
aliengawd 9 saatler önce
adblock is essential, guess he thought hes makin a fraction off a penny of erybody
Firefox 18 saatler önce
Stellar Fervour
Stellar Fervour 3 gün önce
I want my fourth wall back 🤣
Patrick Romero
Patrick Romero 4 gün önce
“This crippling of individuals I consider the worst evil of capitalism. Our whole educational system suffers from this evil. An exaggerated competitive attitude is inculcated into the student, who is trained to worship acquisitive success as a preparation for his future career.” ― Albert Einstein, Why Socialism?
MinuteGames 10 gün önce
Right when he finished saying “ad” I got an ad…
An Old Man and his HPV
I was at MIT economics at the time, and I met Prof Forester several times. You have to remember that the 70s were a time of huge commodity price increases. Many people, not just economists, extrapolated this out to mean that we would eventually run out of things. Later this became known as "peak oil" etc.I remember one paper that said we would soon run out of copper because the minimum minable grade was assumed to be 0.1%. None of this occurred. The '80s were a time a commodity price collapse. This was due to Increased production, tech driven substitution - all the usual things. Prices in real terms have never recovered. Great for us shorts. You should do a video on this whole era, the Club of Rome etc. It would go well with your wry delivery.
Bigboss304323 12 saatler önce
@Mueller Nikolaï Yes. We have all played StarCraft at some point in our lives
chucktangy 2 gün önce
Well don't start taking your victory lap before the race is over. You have to wait until 2040 or there bouts to know if MIT economists were right or not. Then again, it's not looking good for your team either, and what's the whole point of being right or wrong on this? I wager your collapse of society against my ego of being right. Seems like a tremendously cynical way to gamble with your grandchild's future just so you can say "I was right." But, I think this study had profound psychological impact on Boomers than we give it credit. I'd never heard of this study until just a few years ago, but in talking with my father he eluded to the fear this study had on his political choices. It's almost like the 1980s were a direct response to it. "Sagging growth! Well we'll show you!" Reagan painted a picture American might and ingenuity over the dark forces waiting to swallow us, and the Boomers ate it up so much that they went into hyperdrive on productivity which is exactly predicted by this model through compounding technological advancements. Now because Boomers eluded the fate of this (nearly 60 years before it would happen), or so they think (see exponential curve), they prescribe the exact same medicine they took without critical thought to where we are today with far less resources, less growth, and a very different economic backdrop. We are just under 20 years away from the predicted collapse, but things are already showing serious strain. I believe the model said by 2020 there'd be an inflection point where if we hadn't switched our path we weren't going to make it (barring some rapid and dramatic technology adoption). If you're an "unapologetic red-blodded American capitalist (TM)" you probably stopped listening because you believe this mostly says you are doing it wrong and that communism is the only solution. But, I take stock in the fact that the dawn of capitalism was in the Netherlands which has had a stable 400 years period of that economic system. We could still have capitalism without the resource depletion if we had the political will to reform ourselves.
KugleeKuglee 3 gün önce
@Mueller Nikolaï His companies consume lots of rare minerals.....
John Chedsey
John Chedsey 3 gün önce
I read about Peak Oil years ago and it was a startling concept. I even thought that it was imminent and things were going to get tough. That was 17 years ago. Granted, we have pandemics and product shortages, but the world certain writers envisioned (looking at you, James Kunstler) definitely hasn't come to pass.
Mueller Nikolaï
Mueller Nikolaï 4 gün önce
it doesn't matter if the predictions are off by decades or even centuries. True, we might find new unexpected sources. But the fact is, as Elon Musk eloquently puts it, extracting non-renewable sources from a limited environment will inevitably lead to resource depletion, even if the timing of it is uncertain. That is just mathematics, if you keep subtracting from a finite number you will eventually reach 0.
Matt Greene
Matt Greene 7 gün önce
There's a book called Fates Of Empires by Sir John Glubb in which he studied lots of failed societies, and found a pattern. We're just following along the cycle he discovered. One reason he mentions for this that the OP didn't mention....was that history is not truthfully taught. Since we constantly revise history, we can't escape the cycle.
Virgilius 6 saatler önce
MIT already predicted in 1972, in the Meadows report, the collapse for 2000. And nothing happened, no famines as they claimed, pollution decreased in developed countries, etc...
Matt Greene
Matt Greene 2 gün önce
@Nopey Nope Technically, yes. It fell apart. The end of every society is a good or bad thing, depending on whether you believed in that society, or not.
Nopey Nope
Nopey Nope 2 gün önce
Is the Roman Empire a failed society just because it turned into many different countries?
Jai Jai
Jai Jai 2 gün önce
@matt greene. So true. History that is taught, is nothing more than the beliefs and opinions of the victor, underpinned with an enormous serving of ego.
John Chedsey
John Chedsey 3 gün önce
History is meant to be revised as new facts are discovered, like a stash of letters from the civil war. However, if what you're teaching is mythology over history, therein lies the problem. Most Americans believe the mythology of their country but have a terrible understanding of what actually has happened.
Investment Joy
Investment Joy Aylar önce
Would love to see a comparison of the various economic doomsday theories of the 50s-80s and see how they've fared. I remember hearing my parents and their friends talking about them in the early 90s, and yet here we are.
Jason Dougherty
Jason Dougherty 8 saatler önce
My dad said when he was in school, the prevailing fear from a climate standpoint was that many scientists were predicting that we were headed for another ice age if we didn't end up nuking each other into an irradiated wasteland.
Question Everything
Question Everything 3 gün önce
@matt molloy BOOGA BOOGA Arrrrrggggghhhhh ! the sky is falling ! Says all hopeless poor people.
Sharina Watkins
Sharina Watkins 12 gün önce
@Lokrohk there’s good money in the doomsday sector!😂
kino_retro 18 gün önce
Yes here we are, with more problems than ever before!
-Siculus Hort-
-Siculus Hort- 26 gün önce
it's always the end times.
Brash Adventures
Brash Adventures 27 gün önce
I'm currently reading Foundation by Asimov and the correlation with the simulations ran by MIT vs Psychohistory are interesting.
P W 7 gün önce
Indubidably B.A., indubidably.
Michael McGrath
Michael McGrath 10 gün önce
Read Foundations as a teenager. Maybe worth a reread. It certainly was thought provoking, as were all of Asimov’s books.
Dávid Kertész
Dávid Kertész 25 gün önce
keep in mind that the book is from the 50s. I think we can claim with reasonable certainty that the simulation was inspired by the book.
Corbin Aspenlieder
Corbin Aspenlieder 17 gün önce
this video alone taught me a lot about economics! i was somewhat knowledgeable on it before but i didnt think too consider so many variables
Tigerpirro Gün önce
So we have about 20 years to fix enough for society to continue in a non "mad max" type scenario? At first i thought that seemed ludicrous, but 20 years ago I would have thought it impossible for there to be positive degrees outside in Northern Sweden in January. What's the best bet for the collapse and post-collapse scenarios?
Tigerpirro 19 saatler önce
@Virgilius I doubt that it happened over just about 200 years before, without catalysmic events. Also, we are in an ice age, right now. It hasnt ended, yet.
Virgilius Gün önce
This is not the first time that the climate has warmed up and there is a positive temperature in this country. since the end of the ice age the earth has already experienced 6 warming followed by cooling. After the Little ice age the temperature rises!
Storm Reach
Storm Reach 23 gün önce
Glad to know my impending sense of dread for the future wasn't just me. Here's hoping it doesn't come to that... but I'm so glad my mom raised me with the skills and wit she did
Better Chapter
Better Chapter Aylar önce
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes" - Mark Twain
njej lester
njej lester 7 gün önce
Mark Twain never said or wrote this. Jeez. Read some Twain, why don't you.
Bilb Ono
Bilb Ono 18 gün önce
Im_Sincerely_Sorry 21 gün önce
@Pidu 45 Ghost 0_0
HLP 25 gün önce
@AeneasGemini The video is about societal collapse, which has happened to many civilizations throughout the world since the first society. Just because we enjoy much higher comforts than any of those civilizations did, does not mean that we are immune to falling back down the way they did. So history "rhyming" is definitely relevant.
Joey Mayson
Joey Mayson Aylar önce
History does repeat itself, we human just don’t learn lol.
Awoken Entertainment
Awoken Entertainment 25 gün önce
Crazy how ACs and heaters, something most take for granted these days, makes such a difference that most would choose the apartment over the castle... Perspective 🤯
arisoninc 2 gün önce
@FinnGames Knudson It's not about the differences, it's about willingness and capabilities. Most people nowadays are soft and complacent and woefully unprepared physically or mentally to fight for actual survival. "There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy." - Alfred Henry Lewis in 1906
arisoninc 2 gün önce
@Citizen of Squatopia Exactly like me. I'm completely obese, obtuse, and oblivious. Don't come to my house because I have no resources nor the ability or knowledge to defend them.
digitalcurrents 10 gün önce
I think modern people don't appreciate how having a small army of servants can be enjoyable. Too warm in the summer? Have servants with big fans fan you. Too cold? Hop into a big bed with your concubines. Is plumbing a problem if your servants are getting all the water for you?
Citizen of Squatopia
Citizen of Squatopia 20 gün önce
@arisoninc you mean just like you?
FinnGames Knudson
FinnGames Knudson 24 gün önce
Don’t think you aware of all the differences. Depending on the period and local, even the lord and lady may not have had any personal space. In an apartment you are lord & master over a well defined interior, versus being crowded on top of each other in a castle. A castle was just a bunch of stones piled on top of each other, lacking not only climate control but also sanitation of any kind. In modern days you may need to exercise care in certain public venues to avoid a mugging, but violence was rife within most castles. For example in dining room of a Swiss Castle I’ve been in knights sat in little booths against the wall while eating so that no one could stab them in the back and it would be difficult for next guy over to quickly attack around the divider. Lap dogs were a thing - for those wealthy enough for a “pet” but not rich enough to afford human “taste testers”. Dog eats first, wait a few moments and you’ll know whether food is safe. In many ways a cardboard box in a park today would be a safer, more secure, and more comfortable home than most castles were in the Middle Ages.
Francis Xavier
Francis Xavier 18 gün önce
"A lot of technological innovation these days is just major companies finding new and innovative ways for you to waste your time consuming advertiser content." - this is so true, disappointing, and frightening.
Freshborn Mute
Freshborn Mute 14 gün önce
I am on minute 5 of this video and you really make this societal collapse sound so positive and desirable that I don't understand why we shouldn't collapse. Are you okay? Is anybody?
Sean Carrington
Sean Carrington 10 gün önce
The problem is, people who have a vested interest in "the way things have always been done" pay A LOT of money to politicians and the media to convince us that progress is a bad thing. So having our backs against the wall may make no difference at all.
whowhatme03 6 gün önce
things like the french revolution and guillotines happened when the peasants backs were really against the wall. by definition, there's 999 peasants for every person in the 0.1%
General Kenobi
General Kenobi Aylar önce
"So basically yeah the world is ending. Sponsored by Skillshare!" This world has literally become a parody of itself at this point
Knight X
Knight X 3 gün önce
2ddw 9 gün önce
@Colin Worf ...as opposed to say, sponsored by Keurig cups.
Charles St Pierre
Charles St Pierre 9 gün önce
A symptom of the disease.
Alex Baum
Alex Baum 9 gün önce
@ret1con yeah, but that is the true definition of an outlier. It is not, in any way, even slightly representative of the rest of the continent. One of its neighbors - Indonesia - has an island inside of one of its crater lakes (Samosir Island in Lake Toba) that is larger than the nation of Singapore. Indonesia is also the largest economy in Southeast Asia. It is also a member of the G20. And yet it does not have nearly the living standard that Singapore does. The richest among Indonesia’s residents tend to put their wealth (at least that which they want to remain onshore and traceable) in Singaporean banks. They send their children to Singaporean schools. They check into Singaporean hospitals for any sort of medical treatment. This is not hearsay nor speculation. This is irrefutable fact that can very easily be looked up. You can start with Indonesia’s current president. That is a fairly good metric of how much better Singapore is doing than basically any other nation in Asia. It is an interesting case and certainly worth anyone’s time to research. I implore people to look into Singapore’s history along with that of Malaya, British East India, and the Dutch East Indies. You get a sense for why Singapore has always been so far ahead of the curve relative to its neighbors and why so much wealth has come from that part of the world. There are tons of weird avenues to wander down they give a very peculiar view on the endemic and systemic corruption that exists in this region of the planet. People glance over and tend to disregard the corruption that exists in Singapore on paper, let alone what is hidden from plain sight. Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s rampant corruption - something that Singaporean banks have always been more than willing to prop up in their special little ways - acts as a smokescreen for it. But it’s all there if you’re willing to do just a little digging. And it really is a very interesting journey.
Alex Baum
Alex Baum 9 gün önce
Seriously. Spend your money with us first before you and everyone you know is totally FUCKED!!!! This comment sponsored by KY Jelly™️
BOTTIMIND 19 gün önce
Interesting yet sad to realize our entire civilization rests solely on the proper combination of letters to form the sentence which will engage the innovative part of our minds to construct the manifestations we need to become a reality in order to continue talking about our survival. Before energy was a word, there was no mc to consider it equal to. We literally need new words, numbers, thoughts to create a new future. We need new labels to indetify the new problems we can't imagine yet. Silence won't solve issues, but it will keep the issues in plain view.
bean 13 gün önce
Great work everybody! Let’s keep up the good work
Kieran Kennedy
Kieran Kennedy 17 gün önce
Is it bad that even though I’d have to find water/food myself, have no medicine, no heating etc etc, I’d still probably have as much hope for something greater in that apocalyptic world as I do today in the world we live in?
Jai Jai
Jai Jai 2 gün önce
@Kieran. I’m with you 100%. There’s nothing to applaud about modern society. If you’re prepared to work the soil and get your hands dirty, you will always survive. The only obstacle is that the rulers of this earth have stolen most of the land and resources for themselves.
Jacob Horowitz
Jacob Horowitz 17 gün önce
Denial is a survival skill
Joshua Calig
Joshua Calig 28 gün önce
It depends on how you define society. By my definition, it already happened years ago.
MachineMan1992 2 gün önce
After all, we live in a society.
Andrea Walker
Andrea Walker 6 gün önce
@Eric Johnson I agree with this. Having a little computer on hand accelerated the transition into the gig economy, made us reachable at all times, and got us hooked on SM. I miss being able to clock into a job on site, not having to check my email constantly, and having more concerted socialization.
Eric Johnson
Eric Johnson 7 gün önce
@MrToestie I agree with this. I like to say 2007 was the beginning of the end. Iphone came out, social media began its foothold, all right before the economic collapse.
Andy Bunn
Andy Bunn 8 gün önce
We are in the idiocracy.
MrToestie 10 gün önce
In a way I’d say the insane ease to access the internet and its overall availability was the start of the collapse of “society”. I’m pretty young, but I kinda wish I lived in an era where computers and the internet weren’t a thing. Just seems soo much more, tangible, than todays society. I feel disconnected from basically everything
 ShortHax Aylar önce
Maybe electing people who won’t be alive for society’s collapse isn’t such a bright idea
Willis Hampton
Willis Hampton Aylar önce
@̈ not socialism. Corporatism. There is a BIG FAT DIFFERENCE. Please learn it. Thank you
jgribmdbz1212 Aylar önce
@̈ biden a socialist. 🤣🤣🤣 At best his a centrist right.
Jam H
Jam H Aylar önce
If you think we have a choice your the problem
Design Counts
Design Counts Aylar önce
That's a brilliant point.
Jojo Swawa
Jojo Swawa Aylar önce
Mortal Komment
Mortal Komment 23 gün önce
"Don't look up" is a great movie discussing the collapse of reason before the actual collapse of the planet. Watch it! It's outstanding.
Sanjana Maiti
Sanjana Maiti Gün önce
@Misi Parham netflix
Misi Parham
Misi Parham 2 gün önce
Which platform is it on
P W 7 gün önce
Kevin Solem
Kevin Solem 16 gün önce
Just saw it. Strange movie but good point on where we are heading. Hopefully it will not get worse
Uncle Badger
Uncle Badger 19 gün önce
Thanks for the recommendation. Watching right now 👍
TheNewUnderdog 27 gün önce
There's a video of a self-learning program that when asked the question about when the point of technological singularity (in regards to true AI) will be reached, answers year 2041. Uncanny.
Deuteronomy 13 gün önce
It would be interesting to see what results they get if they run this from 1870 to 1940!
Paul Gloor
Paul Gloor 28 gün önce
12:48 I've never really understood that position. Sure, a ride share car with self driving would be efficient use of a vehicle but it turns it into a taxi, a bus, a form of public transport that is available only when someone else isn't using it, kinda like an elevator that has to stop at every floor between before it gets to the floor you called it or desire to go. If anything, cars themselves might change in complexity, size and price to the point where ownership is trivial and a family might have one for everyone in the house.
Paul Gloor
Paul Gloor 24 gün önce
@foxesamu On a scedule is fine, but I don't see people waiting for a ride share to show up all that often for erands and stuff, too much like a taxi. It will def work for some but I think I would prefer to own a car.
foxesamu 24 gün önce
With self driving cars, we can schedule them to suit our needs and have one show up at our door whenever we want for a monthly fee. I predict this will be the model. Maybe needing a car last minute will cost extra unless you buy your own.
shmeckal_ 7
shmeckal_ 7 Aylar önce
The biggest problem with humanity is the fact that we typically tend to be more reactive then proactive we wait until the last minute to fix big problems that could have been solved a long time ago
Jai Jai
Jai Jai 2 gün önce
@Zoe Summers No. Some of us KNOW that we are more than our bodies. Some of us truly have peace and contentment even during this Casedemic, whilst the majority are being driven by constant fear and terror. Where do you think we derive that strength, courage and endurance. Life is short, so enjoy! Eternity is long, prepare! Each to his own!
This Sucks
This Sucks 9 gün önce
@Darth it's almost like wageslavery is a bad thing and why people avoid it
TempoTrack 11 gün önce
@CrystlMath reform the way we do things and it wouldnt be a problem. if we had planned on making a switch to a more reliable and renewable source of energy 60+ years ago when we were already aware of this happening most of the damage could have been mitigated at least somewhat and we would be better prepared for whats to come. but it was 'easier' and more profitable not to. again, its fat greedy cucks ruining the world.
CrystlMath 13 gün önce
@TempoTrack No we couldn't have. Our society is too dependent on fossil fuels to transition right now even if we wanted to.
Alice Amell
Alice Amell 17 gün önce
I think this is b/c people want power and to keep power they have to make things stay the same (or get worse)
Brian M
Brian M 20 gün önce
I’m not a pessimist or doom and gloom person at all. I’m an optimist but also a realist. I think a big population/ economic collapse is inevitable, the way the population has been rising dramatically and how very fast we’re going through our natural resources. I think the past 100/150 years is the exception not the norm. Didn’t really think it was going to be as soon as 2040 though.
Bravo Zulu
Bravo Zulu 17 gün önce
Sometimes it feels like we are leaving inside some vast imaginary world Matrix like. World problems are so obvious but we all choose to ignore them.
John Rodriguez
John Rodriguez 23 gün önce
Actually I'm surprised that our society hasn't collapsed already! So everyday is a gift!
Sneering Imperialist
Sneering Imperialist 21 gün önce
The reason that there is less war today is that it costs so much more , today. Weapons are much more expensive and destructive than they used to be. And they require a support system like fuel , spare parts , and skilled operators and repair crews. It can cost more for the weapons than the targets they destroy. There is no longer any useful loot after a battle. Anything that wasn't burned or blown up is enemy equipment that requires different training and maintenance than your troops have learned or can be supplied with. War no longer realizes a profit, but is a huge loss that can only be supported by vast economies and large nations , for very specific reasons, if not good reasons.
Oliver Knabe
Oliver Knabe Aylar önce
"This video is brought to you by Skill, Share. Thanks to SkillShare you can [learn all of these cool things] which will be useless by 2040 according to MIT"
Juan Silva
Juan Silva 18 gün önce
@Satan Thanks ! :)
Baron_Krtek 27 gün önce
I hope they have some tips and tricks for looting abandoned houses
J.D. Rudie
J.D. Rudie Aylar önce
I love when I recognize another Miami person in the comments by the stock background
UnknownV Aylar önce
u have 20 years to learn things
Pyr8 Aylar önce
@My angst has a body count That's a given, no one is suggesting stopping that..that's a staple older than our current civilization, and still will be for whatever name is given to this land after what we call it is long forgotten d>_0b
Pixii 6 gün önce
I would guess research a still doing these kinds of simulations with more knowledge, more computing power and updated starting points. An update from newer studies would be useful :)
Beige Gaming
Beige Gaming Aylar önce
I assumed pollution included carbon emissions. The fact that it doesn’t severely underestimates the destruction ahead. Also, do you know if they ran any simulations on the magnetic field flipping? The North Pole is currently on the move at 25 miles per year and gaining speed. We are living through a pole reversal which can weaken our magnetic field by up to 90%. Humanity is living through two mass extinction events that these studies most likely didn’t account for.
Beige Gaming
Beige Gaming 29 gün önce
@Ronald Zagorski it is warming up the atmosphere but so is human activity. Methane and CO2 essentially act as a magnifying glass for the suns rays. We’re increasing the amount of magnifiers in the atmosphere while the protective magnetic field is shrinking. It’s a two piece combo that the world keeps giving us and we’re just gonna have to keep taking it at this rate. Hopefully, the earth is still habitable in e next 50-100 years. If so, I’d say humanity still has a good chance
Ronald Zagorski
Ronald Zagorski 29 gün önce
I believe that the pole reversal and migration have a larger impact on the weather than scientists understand.
Laura Westbrook
Laura Westbrook 29 gün önce
Interesting things to consider. @Beige Gaming
Anthony Morris
Anthony Morris Aylar önce
Carbon is not a pollutant. It's a harmless gas that 8 billion people exhale every second.
Nathan Choi
Nathan Choi 19 gün önce
When it comes to climate change and humanity, I have some thoughts. The jist of it basically is that we as a society, and human beings a part of that society arrogantly over estimate our ability to "control"/influence nature(climate) one way or the other as well as humanity as a whole, one way or the other. We may take pride in our ability to manipulate both to some degree, but they are just individual event that hold little water. Which the sum of all would still be nowhere near discovering significant answers to the enigma. Carbon dating, prehistoric research has chronicled a handful of extinction events, as well as those since the beginning of human existence. Yet nature continues on as I believe it shall regardless. Whether our species survives or not is entirely up to nature and not by any of our doing for better or worse. Same goes with humanity as far as I believe. It will be humanity that decides how much it "evolves" for the "better". Killing another with a club eons ago to killing another with a weapon today, our selfishness, greed, lustful decadence etc?? It would be great if the purest and honorable of our traits could overcome the worst, but how has that been going for us so far? Only thing I believe we can control/influence is our own individual humanity and our surroundings. Might sound like me being a defeatist, but I truly believe in the vast potential of "has to start with one; me". Don't know about anyone else, but I've got s lot of work to do.....
Gazunkafone Gazunkafone
If I’ve learned anything about computer modelling over the last two years, it will be at least 1000% exaggerated end up being a non issue, but some rich people will get richer 👍🏻
Faethe Aylar önce
My experience is that there's never been a group of science types as bad at prediction as economists.
Slixlix Gün önce
What’s your experience ?
Recorder of Changes
Recorder of Changes 2 gün önce
that is because it is not a science, everything from economy, sociology, psicology, teology and all those "humanities" are not science, just wishfull thinking and opinions based on experience, the have nothing scientific like biology or astronomy
Faethe 2 gün önce
@Gus González Lamarque economics is in the science category for the Nobel, , not the political. Social sciences are sciences and use the scientific method when conducting studies.
Gus González Lamarque
@Faethe It is considered a social science, but it's not a hard science, they don't use the scientific method to draw conclusions... Also, the Nobel gave a US president the nobel peace prize on one of the the worst periods regarding bombing and killing. He he.
Faethe 2 gün önce
@Gus González Lamarque the Nobel committee disagrees with you
Guy Pehaim
Guy Pehaim 14 gün önce
One thing that has to take place is the further concentration of energy to support larger populations. Fusion is the answer we need to sustain the human race.
Highest IQ
Highest IQ 16 gün önce
I was severely depressed before but now I'm super optimistic, thanks!
Simply Servant
Simply Servant 13 gün önce
Many people look forward and hope this to happen. Some work to make it so. Only the people can change this and it seems unlikely they can or will do so.
Chandler Cameron
Chandler Cameron 27 gün önce
That ad timing thing was hilarious never thought I laughed so hard from an add coming up😂
new face
new face Aylar önce
MIT couldn’t even predict that their janitor was a genius, so my confidence is pretty minimal.
T M 18 gün önce
My boy is wicked smaaaaaht
Memoiana 26 gün önce
@Anthony Young there was actually a real character who was a janitor, rose to scientific prominence and ended his life in poverty and oblivion.
vieda z.
vieda z. Aylar önce
Based comment
Bobby Wise
Bobby Wise Aylar önce
@Anthony Young Clearly he was making a joke.
Sneekystick Aylar önce
Knock on wood
zondervonstrek 9 gün önce
The "Business as Usual" model seems very very likely to be accurate. When our collective backs are against the wall it might be too late.
Powell Lucas
Powell Lucas 23 gün önce
The results of this study are based on computer algorithms which are governed by rule #1: GIGO.
Bryant Art
Bryant Art 26 gün önce
Do you remember when we all thought the world was ending in 2012? Yeah, good times
IANramos97 28 gün önce
I can't wait that long. Can't we make it happen sooner?
HammerTh Aylar önce
"Why get hostile when you can get rich?" is literally the founding principle of the EU.
MKraay 21 gün önce
@The Light Silent The EU will not collapse. Soviet Union and EU aren't comparable AT ALL, and if you think so, you REALLY need to open up a book or 10 about the (law of the) European Union.
Jorge Luiz
Jorge Luiz 26 gün önce
I'd rather be poor than nuked
mini smalls
mini smalls Aylar önce
@Lav654 I'm a fool for saying a true statement that directly ties with the original comment? Kick rocks troll
Lav654 Aylar önce
@mini smalls as any rich powerful political entity/tribe throughout history, you're a fool
Robbie Torkelsonn
Robbie Torkelsonn Aylar önce
@Doc Holiday I don't know. Is it where you are by law no longer able to protest?
stefan pills
stefan pills 28 gün önce
I feel like everyone should watch this video. It would help the world!
Chris R
Chris R 16 gün önce
So these model variables were run on 1974 computers... have they repeated the tests with the computing power of today? Would be an interesting comparison.
Dave Smith
Dave Smith 15 gün önce
The computational power doesn't matter if the input is inaccurate.
Étienne de La Boétie
There is a movement to change the meaning of "ownership" to the "lease" or "rent." It's comping from European energy companies. That could also be what the WEF "meant" with their 'you will own nothing' comment. I get the feeling there's some kind of SOMA like aspect to this as well...
Ryan FitzAlan
Ryan FitzAlan Aylar önce
That was the greatest final plug at the end there. Perfect.
Christian Petersen
Christian Petersen Aylar önce
Guys, it's been a rough couple of years for humanity. We've been through a couple of defeats. It's good to finally be ahead in something. So keep up the good work everyone. Cheers!
Zixx 23 gün önce
@John Well my optimism lays in the fact that societal collapse is actually quite normal and far more common then we think. German society for example collapsed twice within the span of 30 years and now look at them, biggest economy in Europe and has been enjoying the longest period of peace in its entire history. Collapse doesn't mean suddenly its mad max and we're all going to die, it means that the previous system that was in place has completely failed and a new one has to rise up and take its place. It's the fact that the US, UK, Australia and other anglo saxson countries have gone on for so long without a collapse that is real anomaly.
John Aylar önce
@Marcus T. Anthony I assume just by the fact that Covid, extreme political division, climate change, and pollution are now things. Humanity is far better off in a physical sense; we don't have to worry about illness and disease to nearly the same extent, but the world still ain't perfect.
Marcus T. Anthony
Marcus T. Anthony Aylar önce
Rough couple of years? By what historical standard? 200 years ago half the population died by the age of five, there were no vaccines, antibiotics, no penicillin and doctors didn’t even wash their hands.
Ian Tan
Ian Tan Aylar önce
@John I agree it’s not inevitable we can fix it
John Aylar önce
@Dave Gilmour That's a cause for alarmism, but not a cause for doomerism. Being worried about climate change is great! Nobody's saying to ignore the problem, we're just saying to stop being depressed and apathetic about it because it seems like an inevitability.
hannah cheethamsvjq an.t
Have you done any videos about when wages don't keep up with cost of living and what the outcomes can be? Inflation increases for my job aren't going to be inline with CPI.
TrentTube 18 gün önce
The business-as-usual model looks accurate in large part because supposed representative democracies actually aren't representative in the most economically influencial (see, powerful) countries in the world. This being so, public "concern" with the handling of public resources and public policies related to the impending disasters don't see their day in congresses.
Khaki Campbell
Khaki Campbell 19 gün önce
I'm wondering if Australians who are witnessing their democracy rapidly turn in to a totalitarian state, feel compelled to adjust their personal estimates for the collapse of so-called "civilization"?
wasteddude911 2 gün önce
@Taj Bates Dude, If you were to go to a North Korean and tell them you think Australia is totalitarian, they would have a right to look at you like an idiot. Australia's approach to covid definitely is authoritarian though. All this internet and y'all don't know what totalitarianism and authoritarianism mean.
Taj Bates
Taj Bates 2 gün önce
@wasteddude911 literally none of this is hyperbolic it’s actual facts that’s how fucked up it actually is
wasteddude911 2 gün önce
@Taj Bates dude, you don't know what totalitarianism is and you're being hyperbolic.
Taj Bates
Taj Bates 3 gün önce
@Dave Smith yeah it’s terrible some of the stuff they are doing is messed up like selling thousands of litres of water from all the river systems to farmers and they are using them for drinking water. so many big species of fish like the murray cod are going extinct because the government couldn’t give too shits about the native species and they never have. Back in the day they tried to kill multiple species of animals for stupid reasons and they succeeded with the tasmanian tiger. They tried to get rid of emus but their is way too many of them. They’ve always been corrupt and really stupid
Taj Bates
Taj Bates 3 gün önce
@wasteddude911 nah pauline hanson couldn’t of said it better she said we are better described as a totalitarian state with no freedom of speech and no anti corruption committee.
Halo Universe
Halo Universe 9 gün önce
Oh great... that's right about the time I'm expected to finally pay off my student loans. Well at least I'll have that debt off my back in a post-society collapsed world.
Ben Stegeman
Ben Stegeman 23 saatler önce
I think we'll all be living in a nice comfy simulation before things get really abysmal.
B Dan
B Dan 29 gün önce
I wonder if the new study considers CO2 a pollutant which it was not in the 1960s/70s. Pollution, not including the relatively new addition CO2, has definitely not continued to increase, at least not in the first world.
Marisol Ramírez
Marisol Ramírez 9 gün önce
I wonder how continued wars conducted by only ONE superpower around the globe were computed into these simulations, or if they/it ever were.
King King
King King 27 gün önce
I love to see the story of Dr. Wudi. He observed timelapse of all Universes. He holds a very different view. He has an unusual Theory of Everything. He has been observing in silence since 2017. If you make a video about him, I think it would be a truly fascinating story.
Xavi Ondoño
Xavi Ondoño Aylar önce
As someone who has worked with simulations before, this is the most critical question: How many times did they rerun the thing and the result was “nothing interesting” before the run that gave them the “the world is ending” result? EDIT: More analysis on the study below!
Christoph 4 gün önce
@Shingi This is simply wrong, sorry. Not only is growth a problem but the current population. We are already _way_ past the carrying capacity of our ecosystems if you would like the majority of the world population to have decent living standards, let alone all 8 billion of us having western living standards. We simply do not have enough ressources to make this happen and we are running out of ressources VERY fast as more and more countries catch up to western ressource depletion paradigms. If you are looking at this from the short-term economic side only and are only interested in employment numbers, economig growth and so on, you will necesserily get a very skewed view. Our growth based economy combined with a growing and already much too large populations, is simply not sustainable. I dare you to paint a picture of 8 billion people (or 10 as is projected as the "probable max population") living on this earth on western standards of living and the ecosystems not collapsing. Seriously: make this model and the next Nobel Prize is yours.
Shingi 5 gün önce
​@Joseph Weeks This is a pretty disingenuous interpretation of the methodology issues Xavi went at length to describe in a transparent and verifiable way (ie nothing he says is inaccurate on a read of the actual study). It's interesting that you call Xavi's credentials into question, but you are unable to actually provide a counter argument to any of his specific points about flaws in both the simulation and the conclusions it's meant to generate on actual methodological/scientific basis. All you have is ad hominem ("science denier!"), a tautological, "my argument is self-evident" appeal to authority, and clear ideological fervor. Which makes you ironically the least scientific contributor to the discussion
Shingi 5 gün önce
@Christoph Population growth is not a problem per current trajectory. In fact, most major economies are facing the opposite problem - inverted population pyramids
Shingi 5 gün önce
@Peter798 You would be surprised at how much science starts with a conclusion and builds methodology to generate that result. These aren't robots doing this work, these are people, often with political axes to grind just like anyone else. Except a large segment of the population looks at your degrees and your employer and just assumes whatever you publish is "truth" (just as you did here)
el Looto
el Looto Aylar önce
Yeah, no-one gets a second dose of grant money with the result "nothing unusual to see here, folks!"
yumri4 28 gün önce
for the microchip example the way forward right now is already found it just has several different paths all of which might or might not succeed. You have path 1 shrinking smaller like normal path 2 changing from electric to light for compute which will make smaller devices harder but all light based chips will be faster than electric ones. path 3 using an entirely different material for the electric paths to be made out of. Very oversimplified path descriptions but all 3 are going forward right now.
a lindley
a lindley 22 saatler önce
What if a new terataogen appears that affects every baby in the developed world, kicking off twenty IQ points from each baby, and making them all psycho-sociopaths who lack empathy, and also making some of the babies, most of them, even, have ADHD, impulsivity, and psycho-sociopathic tendencies. In this dystopian scenario, the "new normal" for human babies would be an IQ of 86 with attention deficit, a lack of empathy a feeling of fun when hurting other people, and a lack of the abilities to love, reason, create, or even to be morally loyal, even to one's own spouse or children. Such a scenario already exists in the Eastern Block and in any country where NEURO-MODULATION (i.e., the use of powerful psych drugs on the population at large as Stalin and the other Eastern Block Communist leaders did, exposing the entire population to high levels of environmentally administered haldol category tranquilizing drugs for the purpose of social control) is being used at the population level. We saw the Eastern Block countries collapse with the Fall of the Berlin Wall, but in the West, few of us acknowledged the role that a population of retarded psychopaths would have on the Eastern Block economies. We in the West attributed the Fall of Russian Communism to the brilliance of president Reagan, not to the fact that the Russian babies were so stupid on average, due to prenatal brain damage from these ubiquitous neuro-modulatory tranquilizers placed into the Russian environment by the Communist elite for the purpose of social control of their population and the snuffing out of dissent, that the ordinary workers in this new generation of neuro modulated babies grown into adults, could no longer do the tasks that Russian peasants had performed for centuries. Namely, they could no longer manage to grow and successfully harvest wheat and potatoes. Furthermore, they were utterly incompetent to be in military service, due to low IQ coupled with ADHD. (I say this with a simplistic but true understanding that without the completely different, strong, motivated, and gifted Russian Army of the nineteen forties, we'd all now be speaking German in the rest of the world. The Russian army of today is a completely different bunch from the brave, bright, scrappy Russian soldiers whose sacrifice helped give the Allies the victory and saved the world from Hitler in WWII.) So if we now put neuromodulation in place in the West, in America, Europe, Canada, and other coutnries, our workforce will soon have a "new normal' IQ of 86 or so, together with the kind of psych issues that will make iti impossible for these people to hold responsible jobs in a developed economy. With a scarcity of workers bright enough to be scientists, leaders, business founders, innovators, engineers, journalists, and artists, Western Culture and the Western Modern Technical Economy will surely collapse, due to a lack of citizens bright enough to sustain it. So this is real. How many readers personally carry a neuromodulation sprayer on them when they go outside, and spray their fellow citizen with powerful psych tranquilizers at will? This practice is now ubiquitous in the cities of Europe and America and Canada. These sociedtgies, and, indeed, the societies of any country where neuro-modulation drugs are endemic in the environment, will soon collapse, due to the plummeting of the average IQ in the workforce, as the bright people are killed off by these neuromodulation drugs, and as every baby is made prenatally stupid and brutal by prenatal exposure to these powerfully teratogenic psychiatric tranquilizer drugs. So....good luck with that plan to survive the coming crash in a bunker under the South Dakota prairie. What will you do if even your own children are born autistic, dyslexic, and brain damaged? And what happens if, outside the hatch of your underground bunker, there lurks not the danger of nuclear war but rather the danger of hordes and hordes of low average, brutal sociopaths who will be the new ruling majority thanks to the ubiquitous policy of Neuro-modulation in Europe and the Americas. Of course Covid could also do something similar...we don't yet have the results of the studies of child development in the context of the Covid pandemic and prenatal exposure to the virus....
Liriel HotShoot
Liriel HotShoot 24 gün önce
That was the best lead in for an advertisement ever. I had a good laugh! 😊
Imad Oofus
Imad Oofus 9 gün önce
Oh boy! Can’t wait to see what I should be stressing about next month! Thanks!
Tony Jones
Tony Jones Aylar önce
I liked the "apartment vs. castle" statement. I visited the main ruins of a castle in Germany and, until the guide mentioned it, it never occurred to me just how COLD those joints got in the winter...
Philliben1991 2 gün önce
@Zizi Roberts Not so good in a siege though so you'd probably have a good life but a short life!
Julie Brooke
Julie Brooke 3 gün önce
I’d still go for the palace personally, complete with chefs, housekeeper, groundskeepers etc. I don’t have air conditioning now and I’m sure I wouldn’t need it in a palace with all those windows and shutters and people to go around opening and closing them.
Jake Rubinsky
Jake Rubinsky 5 gün önce
@Jimi Bones japanese families still do this - kontaksu
jsamc 6 gün önce
@Popeye Dog Yes the people who chose the 2 bedroom apartment are ignorant and there is the spring and summer.
Thomas Gross
Thomas Gross 7 gün önce
@Brian Peck air condition babies are all over the south, 90% of genx didn't live with ac like today. And you will die from the winters in England way easier than the summer's in the south. All but the elite suffered greatly in the winter's, did they get used to it? Well that's all they knew But the human body suffers from cold much more than heat. A human being will die from hypothermia at 50 degrees Fahrenheit unprotected. Yes, man can die from heatstroke, around 120 degrees Fahrenheit, if you exert yourself and don't drink water. So literally all you have to do is sit in the shade and drink water. Im a civil carpenter in the deep south and have worked in 115-120 degree heat index with 90%humidity, but I have done it my whole life and still have suffered several cases of heat exhaustion and 2 heat strokes
VectorVictor 8 gün önce
"How to survive the coming collapse of society?" Thanks Skillshare!
Mantikal 15 gün önce
Has anyone done any research on other things that MIT predicted and yet, never came to pass?
Lavonne Russell
Lavonne Russell 20 gün önce
I'd like the numbers to be run again with the lost of life we just experienced. Businesses are screaming for workers, and so many have retired or died, there is a void that may take years to fill. Business models will have to change. There's so much doom&gloom people may not have as many children in the near future. Good thing manufacturers are becoming automated.
Beth Weaver
Beth Weaver 17 gün önce
Good point about the collapsing of ancient empires! The only reason we are where we are at today is due to human machines running on a finite resource called oil! The lack of gas and oil will cause the downfall of the current infrastructures of the world from massive agriculture to transportation, to supplying electricity! It won’t ever be a sudden downfall, it happens over time! We are starting to feel the beginning of the current finite energy infrastructure start towards the coming downfall! Or, is human innovation able to create a kinetic energy source the size of a small hot water heater able to create enough electric energy for an average house to run for years, but will still need maintenance during it’s “lifetime” warranty!
Param M
Param M Aylar önce
Hey, I don't know if you will ever read this but you were one of the most influential factors in me taking up economics as my degree at college. I would be studying BS Economics with major focus on mathematics, statistics and programming with minor focus on environmental engineering. Thanks to your amazing videos for making me fall in love the subject
Fren Gün önce
@Daebak You're giving them too much credit. They're not that smart.
Foreign Language
Foreign Language Aylar önce
Yep! We're definitely seeing the collapse of a world power. trvid.com/video/video-__D44cHHVDg.html
Jose Rodriguez
Jose Rodriguez Aylar önce
@geno mir Well yes, this would be a nice addition to anti-capitalist theory, I do appreciate the concept of human labor as a system of chemical and electrical energy consumption and output, but to put this in layman’s terms, the more people we have, the more we can build for consumption and improve our quality of life, however the more energy people consume is not a positive because super obese people would find it harder to labor, so there’s that
geno mir
geno mir Aylar önce
@Jose Rodriguez the social aspect of labor is only possible because labor itself, if there was no labor there wouldn't be any social aspect of it. ANd since labor is a function of energy therefore the social aspects of it is also a function of energy. to cut the discussion short, everything needs energy. the very essense of our universe is energy appropriation/consumption to fight off enthropy. the thing you reffer as social aspects (perhaps more appropriate term is sociocultural dynamics of labor) of labor is a function of the total net possitive energy delivered by the total labor - expressed by total energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. THe higher the energy consumption (both total and per capita) the higher the 'wealth' and the standard of living.
Lofts Sympatico
Lofts Sympatico Aylar önce
@Daebak WOW... you SAID it, bad guy. May JC's best theory of be nice to others as they are to us, start to multiply and so we can ALL help... by NOT producing yet another young crop of COSUMERS !
Animiles 14 gün önce
With the main climate goals being set for 2050 I wouldn't be surprised if society would collapse in 2040. I don't expect many countries to reach those goals, so and then countries will blame eachother for this as they usually do...
CrimsonNeko 20 gün önce
This prediction is about as reliable as the ancient civilizations's prediction on when the world would end.
TubersAndPotatoes 24 gün önce
The movie "Don't Look Up" has a pretty good feel on our lax attitude on very serious global things that effects everyone. A comet crashing into earth is still visible and tangible, unlike what's being talked about in this video.
Dj Nyquil
Dj Nyquil 7 gün önce
@Tizi B it wasnt a metaphor. This is LITERALLY a problem and scenario that could happen 😑
P W 7 gün önce
If only it wasn't so maudlin and self-satisfied. Feh.
Tizi B
Tizi B 8 gün önce
@Vito Burrito well I guess you did not get it if you think this movie is about the comet. I mean, I am not a genius for saying this but it's just a metaphor for the climate change. The movie is okay, maybe even good in my opinion. They have portrayed the ignorance of those in power and especially of ordinary people quite well.
Dj Nyquil
Dj Nyquil 11 gün önce
There isnt much WE could do in Dont Look Up. The government flopped and its because they had a backup if their plan of greed failed.
Vito Burrito
Vito Burrito 23 gün önce
Ridicilous overplayer but with handful of truth. Actual real problems are not took serious. Replace the comet with other problems right now like global warming at it will play out the same. Sad really, but great and fun film.
Pete Peterson
Pete Peterson 7 gün önce
And this study was turned into a few books: "Limits to Growth"
neeneko Aylar önce
So, a little extra bit for people who are curious : systems dynamics models are a bit different than the modern machine learning systems we generally picture today. they do not have the ability to be trained and learn, instead they are hand built, usually using multiple theories that are then chained together into bigger 'systems'. The 'historical data' bit is for hand validation, you run known datasets through it and see how well your theory does, then you have to hand make adjustments. It is still pretty heavily used today since it is much more explainable than ML, but requires a lot more up front work and is not as useful for things like recommendation systems (the core of search, advertising, and product/media browsing) so it gets a lot less attention.
Shingi 5 gün önce
@Lone Starr "what you argue about exhausts it's effect in the third decimal place." not true at all. In many cases, changes in model can have order of magnitude effect on outcome. Especially if you also need to add additional data to historical dataset to incorporate things that happened after the prior iteration was run.
C TB 9 gün önce
@Been Saiyan what I meant by curve fitting is over optimising. To put it in layman's terms ML can sometimes get tunnel vision and put together a perfect equation based on historical data, and get some ridiculous correlations. Fun fact: The import of Lemons from Mexico to the US is has a 0.97 negative correlation with road traffic deaths in the US. An ML model would take this assumption seriously. The ML model finding these strange connections is why it's such a great tool. But you always need a human to filter out the obvious mistakes ML makes.
Eden Everly
Eden Everly Aylar önce
@wutmoorlord yup. This is just the usual comment from someone with intellectual insecurity.
Foreign Language
Foreign Language Aylar önce
Yep! We're definitely seeing the collapse of a world power. trvid.com/video/video-__D44cHHVDg.html
Max Mustermann
Max Mustermann Aylar önce
I agree to most parts, but I’d argue that dynamic models need much less data. And the applicability for well known physics is unparalleled. You can optimize the grid of northeast Europe using ML, but first you need to get the power plant to work using dynamic models and some conventional control. Once everything runs and generates data you get your ML and do some predictive maintenance or large scale optimization.
Casanova 28 gün önce
It's obvious that things won't end well if we continue like this. We must change. Most are scared of the future which is why they try to justify their current behaviour.
Corentin F
Corentin F 16 gün önce
I'm happy that a youtuber brings up the absurdity of saying that someone who lived hundreds of years ago is richer than today's richest people. Today's average person from a middle class in a wealthy country is much richer than any king or emperor could have ever been back then.
Shingi 5 gün önce
It's a pretty asinine argument, especially for an economics youtube channel. Having indoor plumbing does not make me richer than Julius Caesar, a man who was wealthy enough to become effectively the king of the biggest economy the world had seen at the time. Much less Mansa Musa, whose gold holdings adjusted for inflation (weird that an econ channel completely ignores this concept) would make him worth around $400B - 2x the wealth of Musk. Rockafeller's wealth adjusted for inflation puts him at over $300B - 50% more than Musk.
The Hardwick Homestead
When you say the collapse of 'society' that's pretty vague. Seems like there's at least one country in the world that is collapsing at any point and time. Do you mean the collapse of the USA or Europe or China? Or all countries? I think it's possible that the pandemic could get out of control at some point and collapse all countries at the same time, or some other global disaster like an asteroid strike, solar flare EMP, or super volcano. Other than those extremes I doubt we would end up with cities of crumbling buildings that are vacant with no people on a global scale.
Mr Wolf
Mr Wolf 17 gün önce
With all the variables used in these models was the fact that Nixon essentially took the USA off the Gold Standard considered? This is relevant for many reasons and it happened around the same time these studies were done. Also, was the USA losing its reserve currency status factored into any of the models?
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Football Aylar önce
For anyone worried about this report, please keep in mind that data models cant even predict a days worth of weather accurately. Society is a much more complex model with so many moving parts that are influenced by human emotions (unlike the weather). As someone who works in data science, I highly suggest you to take any long term prediction with a grain of salt. We make very very specific data models to price products based on a small set of data points and most of them blow up as soon as they come into contact with real world data. Alarmism sells, nobody would care about a report which doesn't predict a catastrophe.
Shingi 5 gün önce
@Zachary Morris I don't think anyone is actually saying that climate change isn't a problem for human survival. And this is where it's fairly obvious to what degree much of this discussion has strayed into ideology, away from science. Someone has posited that the LtG models have some methodological issues (this is verifiable) around discarding simulated outcomes that don't fit the desired conclusion (society will collapse in 2XXX) and that in general one must be mindful in modeling/data science of starting from a conclusion and building models to fit that. One of the biggest issues in modeling something as complex as human societal interactions at scale like LtG models do is that backtesting for model fit only trains a model based on what has happened, and excludes all the random variance that can come with new technologies and social innovations. There are well understood political stakes that will affect the shape of human society permanently depending on what solutions we implement. So being as objective as possible about material facts (including the timescale and magnitude of certain changes) is of utmost importance. I see a lot of uncited assertions and blind faith in unread research by people pushing a specific alarmist worldview. This idea that folks who do not buy into that specific worldview are "science deniers" actually DETRACTS from our ability to be scientific about how we craft solutions going forward. Especially when not being a denier means essentially taking as a matter of faith the validity of research from scientists whose conclusions map to specific political biases.
Shingi 5 gün önce
@Steven Herd Oxygen and water in high enough concentrations can also impair cognitive function and kill you. I guess those are pollutants too?
Shingi 5 gün önce
@Andre Rice So you argue that qualifications don't matter, yet in the next breath you trash an entire field of study (incorrectly assuming that all branches of economics even agree with each other lol) on the basis of contempt that you fail to provide any evidence to support your position. Can't make this up. For all the "science denier!" polemic coming from the left, there are so many on the left ideological spectrum who are JUST AS ANTISCIENCE as the right wingers they rightly criticize. Only you lack the self awareness to recognize that picking conclusions from one set of research (purely on the basis of whether it confirms your bias, since we know you don't actually read any of the research papers, much less know how to do any of this modeling on your own lol) and sticking dogmatically to that conclusion is itself contrary to how actual science works. Because in actual science, you test your assumptions, and with an open mind, change your conclusions if the evidence that you yourself review (and not get summarized for you by your favorite news source) disagrees with your initial assumption.
Shingi 5 gün önce
@Manas Sarkar Weather models in fact, DO deal with larges data sets over long periods of time. It's just that there are so many variables for predicting day to day weather that you cannot do it accurately with our current understanding of those variable relationships. Once you zoom out and focus more on general climate, the predictions get a bit more accurate.
Zachary Morris
Zachary Morris 24 gün önce
@Fantasy Football maybe it isn't time to hoist the posters yet, sure. But it's definitely time to start taking a serious look at where this planet will be in 30 years if we don't consider a MASSIVE overhaul to our transportation/fuel consumption issue. You can't just ignore that problem. And I'm sorry to tell you this, but carbon dioxide IS a pollutant in the sense that it will make the planet inhabitable if CO2 production is left unchecked. I see that you're trying to science, and I respect that. But coming from an actual geologist.. your science needs work/updating
djmikio 23 gün önce
Seems like a significant portion of humanity does not spring into action when confronted with dire need. Instead, it jumps on a belief system however unlikely, that rationalizes doubling down on our most self-destructive habits.
Max Bautista
Max Bautista 9 gün önce
Simply said, well done.
Angel Valentine
Angel Valentine 25 gün önce
"How can we predict the outcome of our ENTIRE CIVILIZATION?" 🤔 "I know! Let's ask 6 nerds who've never been laid to predict it based on 5 simple and linear variables without using AI modeling and without including any exponential advancements, historical precedent and before evolutionary game theory has been formalized!"
Angel Valentine
Angel Valentine 25 gün önce
"Are you sure this will help us make accurate predictions?" "Make accurate predictions??"
264athughes 20 gün önce
Economics Explained - You should read "Unsettled" by Steven Koonin- will give you some input on systematic models for economics and climate change. Well credentialed. Interested in your thoughts on application to the doomsday models for societal collapse (it may alter a fundamental paradigm and allow an alternate future to be predicted)
Clockwork Physicist
One thing I’m always critical of when it comes to the narrative of societal collapse in many of these predictions is the very same narrative of “Rising from nothing and returning to nothing”. If anything, it’s the opposite. Societies rise from other societies and they return to the societies that claim their legacy. Rome didn’t end with a “great cataclysmic collapse”, nor with the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople; Empires up to today proclaim to be the continuation of Rome, or of empires that came long before them, and to be honest, will probably continue on long after. Empires don’t crumble, they change. A lot of these narratives often forget that evolution doesn’t mean progress, it means change and adaptation.
Shingi 5 gün önce
It's not even a claim. The Roman Catholic Church and Eastern Orthodox Churches are institutions that were established during imperial Rome and are still globally influencial. Half the world still speaks "vulgar" dialects of Roman language (Spanish, French, Italian), and a huge portion still use Roman law as a foundation for business contracts. The only thing that really changed was the ethnic makeup of the coalitions that rule the territories and institutions created by the Romans, who themselves built upon Greek institutions, who themselves borrowed heavily from civilizations prior.
Dubuya Jay
Dubuya Jay Aylar önce
Yeah, being taken over by a foreign regime and either wiped out or clapped in irons. Totally not a collapse at all...
Foreign Language
Foreign Language Aylar önce
Yep! We're definitely seeing the collapse of a world power. trvid.com/video/video-__D44cHHVDg.html
ShINRI tEE Aylar önce
Here's A Protest Song For JULIAN ASSANGE’S FREEDOM trvid.com/video/video-hj2Tvw45GM0.html Listen, REPOST OR TWIT IT!!! #FreeAssangeNOW Let Us Get This Man BACK TO HIS FAMILY!!! HOHOHOOO MERRY XMAS
Uncanny Valley
Uncanny Valley Aylar önce
*#AlternativeFacts* Alternate reality is often a synonym for parallel universes in fiction.
Gaming Dad
Gaming Dad 3 gün önce
I'm pretty sure Manda Musa was richer than Elon when you take devaluation of money into account. The guy single handedly affect a countries economy for 30 plus years by staying there for a weekend. Elon won't be capable of doing that.
David Ward
David Ward 19 gün önce
18 years to be set up off grid and self sufficient... doable but then external threats need to be taken into consideration after the collapse.
MojitoMatt 13 gün önce
That ad placement actually made me laugh so hard 😂
vor 33
vor 33 20 gün önce
Well, the final collapse of the Industrial Age. There's always fear among people as their present societal epoch ostensibly evolves once again. Time to let go of who we were, so that we can become more.
oompa lumpus
oompa lumpus 18 gün önce
The world may end, but memes? Memes never die. Stay strong and keep going.
James Henry Smith
James Henry Smith 29 gün önce
They predicted we'd run out of precious metals, chemicals, chocolate, helium etc. like a decade ago... but did it happen!
Marc LA
Marc LA 19 gün önce
After we finished this video we're gonna do exactly as Bertram Russell said " be more worried about our bad digestion"...than this projected future...
Stan .Rarick
Stan .Rarick 29 gün önce
@5:40 In 1970, I was programming an IBM 360 model 50 like the one you have pictured, and I can assure you that it was much more powerful than a kettle.
John Gardner
John Gardner 19 gün önce
@Shaydow Sith It could be worse: you could be one of the poor suckers forced to maintain COBOL software in 2022... because believe it or not, that gross language is still hanging around like a stale fart in financial institutions... 🤢🤮 I now have an overwhelming urge to go for a shower...
Shaydow Sith
Shaydow Sith 19 gün önce
@John Gardner LOL. And I thought it was awful in the 1980's when I had to write computer programs in COBOL.
John Gardner
John Gardner 19 gün önce
@Shaydow Sith We also have ASCII, nevermind Unicode... I mean, imagine if we still had to deal with umpteen EBCDIC variants in the 21st century...
Shaydow Sith
Shaydow Sith 19 gün önce
In the 1970s, we were learning to do punch-cards for computers. At the time, computer backup was on tape (as were tape recorders), and computers were huge. Today you have the same amount of computing power in your phone.
John Gardner
John Gardner 28 gün önce
EBCDIC, whaddup.
Andrew Dowd
Andrew Dowd 24 gün önce
The size of what we can fit on a cpu isn't really important outside of consumer technology. Commercial technology uses cloud computing to combine hundreds or thousands of cpus collectively
I always thought the Club of Rome report was baloney, I recommend reading the late Bucky Fuller's criticism of the report. It's funny I've never read or seen Vaclav Smil or Joseph A. Tainter talk about the Club of Rome report, either. This makes me suspect it's not worth the paper it's printed on.
Theodora Mladenova
Theodora Mladenova 6 gün önce
Has this modelling been done closer to today? Reassessments should be done on a regular basis. There's little point in looking at what someone predicted 50 years ago, unless our interest is examining historical models.
uckBay Nguyen
uckBay Nguyen 26 gün önce
I think you left out one important factor, resources. Resources run an efficient economy. Lack of can cultivate poor political planning and even war.
Cody Aylar önce
Don’t worry guys, I got this, I’ll stop the collapse. You will know I was successful with my mission when you wake up on January 1st, 2041 to a still functioning world.
dietpepsi73 19 gün önce
Cody what are you thinking? Now the machines will send a terminator back in time for you!
PlutoMayhem Aylar önce
Thank you Cody! Your Legacy will live on forever
Andrew Grandjean
Andrew Grandjean Aylar önce
Sarcasm isn’t helpful. Complex dynamic systems (such as our planetary weather ) can usually be destabilized by relatively small changes in the inputs and outputs through the positive feedback loops in such non -linear systems. We have to try to learn as much as we can to know what we must do to avert the potentially huge swings in the climate that could affect ocean levels, rain patterns, storm severity, agriculture conditions, flooding, drought, and temperature patterns on the globe. These effects could displace agriculture, millions of people, stress living conditions , and Cause other problems that could seriously change our world. Early signs of some of these effects can be seen today. The good news is that scientific learning and analytic capability is ever accelerating more rapidly today than ever. Complex dynamic nonlinear systems are very difficult to model, but we have no other choice than to do as much as possible to solve our big problem.
Foreign Language
Foreign Language Aylar önce
Yep! We're definitely seeing the collapse of a world power. trvid.com/video/video-__D44cHHVDg.html
Καπετάν "Pixy" Torres
Ha, I will not help you, in fact I will try to make it a reality, I wanna see how the world will be when it collapses, I will make sure the collapse doesn't get stopped.
Chicken Mac chicken Mac
A civilization can’t just collapse in one year
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