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How Science is Taking the Luck out of Gambling - with Adam Kucharski

The Royal Institution
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From the statisticians forecasting sports scores to the intelligent bots beating human poker players, Adam Kucharski traces the scientific origins of the world's best gambling strategies.
Watch the Q&A here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0Xxb...
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Adam's book "The Perfect Bet" is available now - geni.us/9Ao9j

Spanning mathematics, psychology, economics and physics, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science, and explains how gambling shaped everything from probability to game theory, and chaos theory to artificial intelligence.

Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections. Prior to this, he got a degree in mathematics from the University of Warwick, received a PhD in applied mathematics from the University of Cambridge and had a post-doc position at Imperial College London.

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2 Ağu 2016

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TY Harris
TY Harris 2 yıl önce
I feel so lucky to be born in a time when anybody at all can just press a few buttons and find themselves being mentally enriched by an expert lecturing in any field of theory or knowledge. Quantum physics or gaming theory. Become as knowledgeable as you care to be on any subject at all. Truly remarkable.
ClubCart
ClubCart 2 gün önce
youtube is only shallow knowledge do not be fooled lol.
Trollnix
Trollnix 11 gün önce
Yes. today, knowledge is about how interested you are to that field of expertise not about what school or who taught you because what i observe is even self taught people has more definitive and useful skills than thos from school.
Beta Max
Beta Max 21 gün önce
@BOOGIE WOOGIE That's what happensed to The Philippines They target President Marcos becuase The Philippines will affect the USA Dollar .
Jason Mckim
Jason Mckim Aylar önce
Yes,yes and YES!!!
Feez The Deal
Feez The Deal Aylar önce
@Mark Choi You missed the whole point. Which is the fact that information is easily accessible. That alone puts a need to store everything into question. Availability of knowledge means you can access it anytime, for example if you wanted to build a wall or chair, why would any sane person want to be an expect when they can just click and get their specific unit of knowledge that's needed for a task. Then, why should one even care to be a specialist in every field that they don't even specialise in? The lengths that people with your type of "personality" go to try spoiling everything must be straining.
MountainProspector
MountainProspector 4 yıl önce
I remember as a kid, RC Cola had some promotion where the liner inside the cap had the chance to win from a 1 free bottle up to a case of cola. One of my friends figured out that the bottles steel cap's of winners were printed in slightly lighter colours than the rest. We had so much RC cola during that promotion! The best part was when we went to collect the free cola we would always choose another winner so never had to buy another bottle, lol. Happy memories as a kid.
blackflagqwerty
blackflagqwerty 2 aylar önce
@Ree My cousin used to watch where my fingers were on my SNES controller before a match of Streetfighter 2 began. He ALWAYS used to get first hit, until I figured it out. I saw his eyes' reflection in the TV screen during a fade to black moment looking at my controller. After that I duped him and changed my first move just before the "fight" announcement was made. After that He NEVER got first hit.
Uncxnscixus Axu
Uncxnscixus Axu 2 aylar önce
All these little hacks still in life, yall just have to look
Dismal Gravesite
Dismal Gravesite 2 aylar önce
@John Smith nope pour your salted peanuts into the bottle. then just as you take a drink coming out of the store and spit a luggie in it so all the kids hanging around wouldn't ever bother to ask for a drink.
Albert Sallent
Albert Sallent 2 aylar önce
Like 799 to your comment 🙋‍♂️
Ken Lovan
Ken Lovan 6 aylar önce
What a wonderful, enlightening lecture! Dwelling on the content, I believe it helped me understand many facets concerning life! Thanks.
Roedy Green
Roedy Green 3 yıl önce
This was a delight. He trips from math to history, to physics like a Mozart sonata.
Garbaz
Garbaz 5 yıl önce
Great talk! A good balance of simplicity and mathematics with some great examples; Presented brilliantly!
Albert Sallent
Albert Sallent 2 aylar önce
Like 494 🙋‍♂️
New Travel Secrets
But does he give a working tool for betters out there? Or just some well crafted presentation without any actionable material?
James Moss
James Moss 3 yıl önce
My thoughts exactly.
eddyvideostar
eddyvideostar 3 yıl önce
To Oiyabastard: I appreciate your effort. I'm sorry for your misinterpretation of my comment. My "luck" is having the Lord in the first place: Faith. Life is not easy for me, I have gone through the rigors, but found victory in my difficulties with the grace of God. You sound as if your faith is lagging or non-existent. It is Satan's temerity which is causing the toil and turmoil, turning to the tenuous in many societies, but ultimately, will be quelled and quashed by the great Creator when the time draws nigh.
caddymix024
caddymix024 3 yıl önce
absolutely incredible talk, so fluid and so many great examples...makes me wanna go and research them all! ty
t loz
t loz 5 aylar önce
Not fluid at all, give this man some water. His mouth and tongue sounded so dry and it bothered me the whole time.
ckom0007
ckom0007 4 yıl önce
Excellent talk! An example of someone who knows a topic so well his explanation is incredibly easy to understand. A rare talent!
Albert Sallent
Albert Sallent 2 aylar önce
True!
DoubleGlog
DoubleGlog 2 yıl önce
What a remarkable presentation by an amazing presenter. Adam is suited to explaining and giving great analogies for complex topics such as these. I enjoyed it thoroughly.
harrish6
harrish6 Yıl önce
Excellent, well presented and entertainingly informative
Peter Gambier
Peter Gambier 2 yıl önce
Thankyou for posting this fascinating subject matter, very well told and illustrated by statistician Adam Kucharski. Hilarious watching the audience do Rock, Paper, scissors.
jr johnston
jr johnston Yıl önce
One of the most engaging videos I have watched for quite some time. It is still amazing to me to have the knowledge of the world available at your fingertips. Although the subject matter has little to do with my particular area of expertise , I absorbed as much as my brain could handle . Excellent talk Mr. Kucharski !
Jan-Jaap Bats
Jan-Jaap Bats 4 aylar önce
Its said that literally every topic on earth is now covered in a (or more) youtube video's. Find the right ones and one can skip university :)
dlanska
dlanska 4 aylar önce
An excellent talk on this subject. Very clear and entertaining, and expertly presented.
Alan Bunyan
Alan Bunyan Yıl önce
A most thought-provoking talk! Regarding the situation in which Deep Blue foxed Kasparov with a seemingly brilliant, but in reality completely random, move, it struck me that the same strategy probably wouldn't work the other way around. Had Kasparov done the same thing, Deep Blue would simply have calmly and unemotially taken the best possible advantage of it, as it would of any other move. Our inability to use bluff/gamesmanship against machines therefore surely means that chess, poker, or almost any game played against a computer is forever going to be missing a major dimension of enjoyment. This might almost amount to an argument for turning our attention, to some extent, away from the further development of AI to that of AS (articificial stupidity)! :-)
Matt C
Matt C 5 aylar önce
There was a lot more schenanigans going on than just a single weird move. I think in reality the match was really just a PR exercise for IBM, they organised it, they promoted it, they agreed a format, they broke all the rules, then they declared themsleves the winner and their PR team let the world know. If this had in any way been a sanctioned formal match I think the deep blue team would have been disqualified for failing to meet many agreed upon anti-cheating safeguards, but it wasn't any they probably paid Kasparov extra to not make a fuss. He seemed pretty unhappy about it, but likely earned enough to live with the humiliation of being labelled the first world champion to lose to a computer.
Kam Novak
Kam Novak Yıl önce
Great vid. Nice to see a lecturer who knows his subject and rarely if ever has to look at his notes.
corinthian
corinthian 6 aylar önce
A brilliant lecture Adam , well done !
quinn
quinn 2 yıl önce
what a lecture, thank you so much, I learn a lot from your lecture mate :)
Bernard Williams
Bernard Williams 6 aylar önce
This human explains the mathematics very clearly. I have been using these methods for years.
Wayne Andrews
Wayne Andrews 4 aylar önce
An excellent lecture and the fact that it is freely available is a reminder that we all have the opportunity to improve ourselves and learn something new and it doesn't have to cost a thing (internet access permitting of course).
Nuru Nurdil
Nuru Nurdil 6 aylar önce
Actually, during that game of chess, Garry Kasparov even went on ACCUSING the IBM team that the move was played are manipulated by a human player. As it was so unclear (and he still admits to not know the answer) if this was a winning move for the computer or a random guess. Especially since he was aware of the diminished value of luck and probability in that computer. Nowadays, computers do that all the time, and they even create and exploit strategies (sometimes purely based on probabilty calculation and risk management) that we fail to understand them. We then see the larger picture when we loose the game
bcmasur
bcmasur 4 yıl önce
I've always thought of math and science as separate. I love them both, (way better than history, grammar, or religion) but they were completely different in my eyes. THIS is mathematics. It only becomes science when you look into in this manner.
Chris Dolling
Chris Dolling 6 aylar önce
Absolutely brilliant, both as a an exposition of the maths and a as a tour de force presentation. I have a rudimentary understanding of statistics, probability, regression etc but your lecture was truly enlightening from a mathematical and psychological perspective, Many thanks!
PlanetLazy
PlanetLazy 4 yıl önce
Such a brilliant talk, covered so many topics in a simple way.
kodiak536
kodiak536 4 yıl önce
Absolutely brilliant! I lasted the entire speech without falling asleep or learning anything worth knowing. Brits, no wonder we're Americans😁
Jerome Tan
Jerome Tan 4 yıl önce
One of the best videos I’ve watched in a long time- brilliantly presented!
Alan Solomon
Alan Solomon Yıl önce
Thank you for this great talk and for defining how much gambling and science do relate to each other. I liked the end of your talk when you cemented this truth by saying that gambling is a part of life. People take risks in health, with hidden information and uncertainty. It is like anything else. It comes and goes in our realities. BTW, The California lottery is not small like the Irish lottery you spoke of. What do you suggest when playing in California if I may ask?
Ammo Alamo
Ammo Alamo Yıl önce
Oddly there was no mention of the current run of statistics defining baseball player value to a team. It's called Sabermetrics, I think, and has revolutionized the way baseball is played and how players are evaluated for skill, and how they are selected, paid, retained, or traded. I guess being Brit the interest in baseball was very small.
Marcin R
Marcin R 7 aylar önce
I watched it 10x already, and every single time I focus on something else …great seminar .. Thank You :)
Beach Recovery Foundation
Well said. It’s a pleasure to support the Royal Institution.
Matt Schwab
Matt Schwab 6 aylar önce
Very well done! Wish there was more.
Kymmberliestarr
Kymmberliestarr Yıl önce
I've been learning a lot about memory and how to "chunk" data. It was very easy for me to remember that number. I guess this is why this video popped up for me to begin with and also I watch a lot of poker. 😭
Semesta Peter
Semesta Peter 8 aylar önce
Very interesting video. I think I need to watch it again to really understand what is explained in this video and I hope I can apply it in the real world.
exp0i0pi0
exp0i0pi0 5 aylar önce
Brilliant talk and very interesting points. Thank you
barracuda40
barracuda40 5 aylar önce
Revisited this video after 5 years and still was hooked, very interesting , thanks
Jason Black
Jason Black Yıl önce
" Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections." An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
Arty Lee
Arty Lee 5 aylar önce
A lecture on the Covid pandemic would be great (albeit quickly out of date if he focused on the "latest news"), but in case you're unaware, Adam has an excellent twitter account full of explanations about Covid data.
Jim Hood
Jim Hood 6 aylar önce
I'm guessing like me you would welcome a similar talk on his main area of expertise. Especially now that we are over a year into the pandemic and have a lot of data to examine.
Steven Barnes
Steven Barnes 4 yıl önce
Absolutely brilliant video. Thanks for sharing it.
EdMcF1
EdMcF1 3 yıl önce
Great talk, makes me pleased to support the RI.
Hans Wilhelm Reinprecht
Going bankrupt in the coin toss example really depends on how small bets are allowed. If you start with 100 000 and te minimum bet is 1, I doubt you will ever go bankrupt, even with 80%. That would be a really long losing streak.
ballhawk387
ballhawk387 6 aylar önce
There are definitely sports gambling hacks one can do, but most require a fair amount of money, such as playing on the side of the house against emotional tendencies of casual bettors. Also taking advantage of late news that can affect an outcome.
Jacobs Badminton
Jacobs Badminton Yıl önce
Just found this but what a great lecture from a professional. Breaks down gambling in a great way making it easy to understand and digest. Thoroughly enjoy the depth and thinking in the lecture.
Jupiter Flambay
Jupiter Flambay 6 aylar önce
Brilliant thanks for that enlightening talk. I am a forex trader and your demo of using a quarter of your money on a random event sparked a realisation in my trading strategy. Thanks !
Johnbro8
Johnbro8 2 yıl önce
Thanks for sharing your maths skills 👍
Ck Khong
Ck Khong Yıl önce
Well,philosophers have long said that success is hard work plus luck.iam back to the drawing board for my next winning bet.thank you for this lecture.
fturla
fturla 3 yıl önce
Great point in gambling where your betting amount in proportion to your bank is extremely important and determines if you win or lose long term. You can have the perfect betting system but if your betting amount if over the optimum limit then you will lose not only the bets but all your bank eventually which is why the casinos always want you to bet beyond what is reasonable all the time.
GB67
GB67 4 aylar önce
Wrong.
B Smith
B Smith 3 yıl önce
What an outstanding presentation!
Randy Randalman
Randy Randalman 2 yıl önce
In regards to sports betting markets, the advancement of AI and computer learning along with the increased availability and accessibility to better quality data, has already led to greater market efficiency. Ultimately humans won't be able to outsmart the machines in prediction, and sports gambling will be more like other mostly luck games, like roulette. Perhaps that's for the best, since if all game lines were perfectly set (an inevitable outcome as our probability assignments will only become more precise), then betting against the spread on any team would had the same probability to win as any other team. So it would make sense to just bet the team you root for, returning sports to a more pure form, as it was when the athletic competition was first established.
Ross Juniper
Ross Juniper 5 aylar önce
Beautifully presented with a subtle twist at the end that shows how the mind can potentially overcome mathematics.
Yessan Know
Yessan Know 5 aylar önce
He cheated and was sentenced to three years in prison.
Youtuber Admin
Youtuber Admin Yıl önce
Excellent video! You should do a video on Arbitrages, since they are basically only winning strategy, like those Betnetto surebets.
Aaron Wolstenholme
@christopher desimone so your saying 100% percent that this is the only way?
christopher desimone
JUST KIDDING forgot to type LOL, sorry.
christopher desimone
@Aaron Wolstenholme yep. one way that can work 87% is a rabbit foot. Be sure it's the front right foot which is the real lucky foot.
Aaron Wolstenholme
Theres plenty more ways of guaranteing wins
Henrik
Henrik 5 aylar önce
Educational and entertaining. A great watch:)
Chris Anthony
Chris Anthony 3 yıl önce
Excellent handling of the subject. Very informative and entertaining.
ste ssert
ste ssert 3 yıl önce
Thank you for a eloquent talk and introducing me to new concepts, subscribed :)
Munrais
Munrais 3 yıl önce
I learned a lot of Excel by doing gambling calculations. I never won a dime, but my ample spreadsheet skills got me a very good job.
Joshua Lindsay
Joshua Lindsay 2 aylar önce
​@Martin Holmes If incorporating the public odds as another variable improves the underlying accuracy of a system, I see no reason to not include it. I don't agree that it will throw off all calculations. I agree that the ods will vary due to all sorts of unknown factors - however it is the single measure that is available to capture or quantify those unknown factors, so I feel that choosing not to use it leaves out potentially very valid information. If a current model is less accurate than the public odds, it will lose money long term, obviously. If a current model, when you include the public odds as one variable, approximates the public odds by themselves, then possibly all the other variables are all already accounted for in the public odds. However, if a model, with (and without) the public odds included as a variable, improves on the public odds, then it shows that the model explains more information than just the public odds do, and is therefore potentially profitable. But as I said, there's many ways to do it
Martin Holmes
Martin Holmes 2 aylar önce
@Joshua Lindsay BTW, I ended up finding a way to win on a particular new pokie game and found much higher rates of return on that for a while for my limited resources. So there are opportunities out there to be found without having to do all the work. But it just takes a lot of discipline and self awareness to not mistakenly lose money when you think you are doing well, one often does not realize one's losses and one is tempted to risk more due to loss of patience or other factors.
Martin Holmes
Martin Holmes 2 aylar önce
@Joshua Lindsay The public odds should not be incorporated into the prediction model to calculate the probabilities of outcomes. As it will throw off all calculations, as the odds will vary due to all sorts of unknown factors and will not help probability calculations at all. I insist on that point. The odds of the markets should only be compared to the calculated probabilities of the predictive model to calculate bets and rates of return on investment. I tried my predictive model and betting strategies on an online leaderboard for the sport in question after more than 2 years of meditating and working and testing the predictive model almost daily and quickly rose to top tips for Return On Investment, or Profits over Time. Could have been luck, but it kept up there, best over last month, last 3 months... One has to find a big a difference as possible in odds calculated between your own predictive model and the odds of the bookmakers. In any case, the odds of the market are based on varying and unknown factors and will not help improving a predictive model to the necessary accuracy to beat the bookmakers. When a model starts churning out odds that resembles that of the markets, then you know you are getting there, this only happened after a long time working on my model, and it suddenly happened at some point.
Joshua Lindsay
Joshua Lindsay 2 aylar önce
@Martin Holmes True, although I see no reason why you cannot incorporate the public odds as one variable into a model, and then again look for differences between the odds we get with our system, to the odds on the public, although, obviously, you'd have to compare both the the actual result. To compare, I guess you'd want to see if it is more accurate, with the public odds as a variable, to without, over x races. So many ways to do it... :) I've been doing this on and off for years... without actually betting, lol. I dust it off every few years and take another look at it.
Martin Holmes
Martin Holmes 2 aylar önce
@Joshua Lindsay To accurately determine this, an analysis would be required over thousands of past results. That is where my efforts were concentrated lately, buiding a huge datasets of forms and results to compare probability calculations that would be made and comparing to the actual results. By incorporating the odds of other unknown methods in probability calculations will reduce discrepancies, discrepancies is what one is looking for, therefore it would complicate improvemement of the predictive model and be less useful. The bookmaker odds should be used to find differences between our and their odds to find betting options of sufficient value to maximize returns and reduce risk at a high enough rate to enable growth of our bank... 😄. Comparing results to improve our model, comparing odds with bookmakers to find betting options of good value.
Nikolai Alexander Westall
Really great loved the talk! Very inspiring!!!
Rob Hollink
Rob Hollink 3 yıl önce
Really interesting presentation, ery well done, I must say. Actually, this man is explaining the games, I have been playing all my life. But, I am happy, he didn't tell all important details and clues regarding games like roulette, blackjack, baccara, slot machines....etc. I am interested to know if he has professional gambling, as a side job as well.
Ireland Irish
Ireland Irish Yıl önce
I played 50cent on 4 numbers on the Irish Lottery, in the bookies a couple of weeks ago. It was my first time ever to do so, and i watched the draw live on tv that night and all 4 of my numbers came out, i won €1900.50. I couldn't actually believe it, i went back down the very next day and collected it, & i walked straight out of the shop clearly extremely happy. I know of plenty of people who would have collected that money & stayed in the shop and blew the lot. That to me is madness.
Brandon C
Brandon C Aylar önce
that person to waste it all is me won 1800 usd the other day lost it all 😎
Xombie 007
Xombie 007 4 aylar önce
Cool story, bro. lol
sully samra
sully samra 10 aylar önce
ج
El Astronaute
El Astronaute 4 yıl önce
Professional gamblers don't think along the lines of 'which horse is going to win' - they think in terms of probabilities and chance. You cannot know what is going to happen, only relative probabilities.
coleyblossoms
coleyblossoms 4 aylar önce
An hour spent spellbound to my seat. Thank you Mr Kucharski!
John Doyle
John Doyle 4 yıl önce
Excellent presentation, thanks. I was a risk taker, but not a gambler, is there a difference. Anyway too old now for too many more risks,but survived my risks and now spend the profits. There is an old saying, there are "Bold climbers, and old climbers, but not many old bold climbers", maybe the same applies to gamblers.
peter preen
peter preen Yıl önce
what a presenter !! how much knowledge does he have ! I'd need 10 packets of Panadol a day !! credit to you young fella well done and hope you are successful in anything you pursue
I'm the black Christian Grey
Lots of interesting anecdotes and history, though quite rudimentary, good on him for putting it all together though.
Paul Norton
Paul Norton 6 aylar önce
There was an incident in Australia some years ago in which a syndicate used mathematics to calculate that if they backed all the dogs in a greyhound race for a place, with different stakes being wagered on each dog according to the approximate dividend showing just before the race on the tote, they were certain to make a profit. After the syndicate had won a big haul on one race, the tote corporation changed the rules to prevent a repetition of this coup.
Matt C
Matt C 5 aylar önce
Seems like this is possible quite often, if you look at the amount you would have to bet on each entrant in a race in order to win back say $100 then with a single bookmaker it will normally be something like $105-110. However if you shop around and take the best odds available from a range of different bookmakers then the amount you'd need to bet to win that $100 guaranteed is often under $100, I don't know why I've not heard of anyone exploiting this, seems like a safeish way of beating the bookies for a steady profit.
Matt Storr
Matt Storr 4 yıl önce
My grandfather was an engineering draftsman, qualified in mathematics. He nonetheless kept graphs of the lottery results in the sincere belief that one day he would be able to predict the numbers. That ultimately ended in my grandmother shouting at him and exclaiming: "How the hell you ever held down a job I will never know". I would be glad to see AI making gambling decisions, it would spare people like my grandmother a great deal of misery.
Nomad
Nomad 7 aylar önce
Incredibly, some people were not even willing to bet £1 on a game rigged in their favor by such a large amount. Talk about "risk averse"... I'm sure their lives are super exciting
Arron Joseph
Arron Joseph 4 yıl önce
Great presentation ... presenter .. good stuff!
fly bobbie
fly bobbie 6 aylar önce
Appropriate for our covid times. Back in the 1970's at school they made us do statics at 'O' level, as well as our chosen subjects, I wondered why. Friend loved casinos, but said he wouldn't bother unless he started with £10k to play with. At best he would leave a few hundred up.
Ben Colglazier
Ben Colglazier 9 aylar önce
Any risk analysis in finance involves some assigning (estimating) "probabilities" of a particular event happening. Decision-making in AI (specifically speaking to your Deep Blue example) similarly assigns probabilities and then picks one when it doesn't have a clear decision. The more complex the situation the more it uses weighted probabilities... just like humans. And we call that skill. But ironically, the more complex the situation is, the more likely that the result was determined by a random number generator. And we call that luck. Skill is limiting the variability of luck. Or maybe it's the polarizing horse in your earlier example in multi-player. Interesting talk. Thanks!
PsyintZ
PsyintZ 3 yıl önce
That specific move within the chess match between the IBM computer and Kasparov was quite funny, actually. Apparently, Kasparov made a move in an attempt to set the computer up, thinking he knew exactly what move it would make. When it didn't make that move, he got really upset and made accusations suggesting there had to be a real player influencing the machine's decisions.
ribbonsofnight
ribbonsofnight 5 aylar önce
was that also the move where when they did an analysis of why the computer made that move it analysed the other option as equally good so it chose at random.
chara dremur
chara dremur 2 yıl önce
Lol
iEuno1
iEuno1 3 yıl önce
You can also compare the potential benefit of science to society and the potential benefit of gambling to society. Gambling works when people want to share, at best, and decide to do so according to some rules, not unlike how law is designed and enforced, including indictments or war, such as in, wage war, at best. Science can solve gambling problem as a potential benefit to society, as well as any other problems, and does not require sharing., even though it can involve sharing.
David Black
David Black 3 yıl önce
My cousin and I were playing blackjack at a casino. My favorite chair was the one on the extreme right of the dealer. I would watch the cards dealt to the for 5 people to my right, and if they were mostly high cards I would bet as if I were going to get a lower card. I had never heard of card counting, but I think that what I was intuitively doing was a rudimentary form of it.
Mark Hooker
Mark Hooker 4 aylar önce
Wonderful talk.Thank you for giving it, and for posting the video.
Place Pages
Place Pages Yıl önce
Excellent Video with no BS for inexperienced Audience. I have been gambling for 30 years, ( not problem anymore :) This is an excellent presentation. i have had some nice angles over the years too including bets which could not lose.... very rare unfortunately and yes also requires spotting human error...which still occurs by the way
Scott Mariani
Scott Mariani 2 yıl önce
Excellent presentation thank you.
BillKnight
BillKnight 2 yıl önce
I started playing a video poker game at a bar top in NV... put 20 in... won 4 out of 5 hands. Cashed out and put 20 more in... won 4 out of 5 again. Rinsed and repeated probably 7 times... then the machine just straight up shut down. I think at that time video games were just letting people win early to try and get them hooked, so I exploited it. But, even when you find an edge, with the flip of a switch they can shut it off.
Jeff Dingle
Jeff Dingle Yıl önce
Gambling definition should also include "the chance of losing your stake". "Any game that is predominantly due to chance where a player can lose their original stake" = Gambling.... Whereas, the UK premium bonds monthly draw isn't really gambling as the stake (investment) is never lost when a player (investor) loses. All winning players receive a share of the monthly total investment interest as prize-money and any losing player (investor) can withdraw their stake (investment) at any time, even after losing that month.
StockTraderClass Live
StockTraderClass Live 2 aylar önce
Brilliant ! I have a question should a super genius person let people sitting at the table know that he is having fun with them ? Because at some point the losing does kinda sucks for them, I thinking this will alleviate some of the anxiety and ultimately teach people to be free thinkers!
Keith Mc
Keith Mc 2 yıl önce
This talk doesn't live up to its title. There may be some luck removed from gambling by algorithms, but not a lot. I was hoping to be able to buy a winning lottery ticket after hearing this talk.
T Mitchell
T Mitchell 3 yıl önce
The "winning" strategy he talks about in the first 6 minutes wouldnt work on the UK lottery unless the rollover reached over 14 million quid...has that ever happened?
Jeffrey Rolland
Jeffrey Rolland 6 aylar önce
Simply a fascinating video; thank you
RobW
RobW 3 yıl önce
Didnt notice how long it was, (expecting maybe 25mins) checked time after 40 mins. Very well presented and engaging. Time flew by.
Anime Banz
Anime Banz 6 aylar önce
YNWA
george mira
george mira 3 yıl önce
The lecture informally touches upon what we call Optimallity Theory, an attempt to measure the entanglement of variables in the possible dimensions of relationship, without identifying the genre.What appears to be optimal choices are affected by the relative optimality of other probabilities in the system.* Systems variables showing complex functions/probabilities are divisible into simpler systems, into components where very simple limited choices can occur. * Thus, your optimal choices may not seem immediately to be the one[s] with the most optimal immediate outcomes; life is complex, variable, reiterative, and the heuristics and analogies through which you make decisions are often not merely suboptimal subsequently, but can be downright destructively anti-optimal. I realize I am not speaking of the zero-sum game called here, gambling; i merely desire to mention more interesting understandings to listeners, of far more important interactive behaviors in their lives. Narrative, mentioned by Kucharski, is inherently heuristic - creating less accurately descriptive evaluation through cherry-picking emotionally salient sensory inputs. The partial narratives evoked in memory by emotional events, such as "winning" in zero-sum games, attract other heuristics - presumptions formed through incomplete access to or sensory recognition of correlative relationship. Consequently, human cognition is complex momentary structuring, rather than observation of reality. Such heuristics as attraction to confirmation bias, and disconfirmation avoidance can increasingly limit cognitive capacity. You then can properly regard dogmatic adherence as dementia. It tends to increase across time. this is a generality, but is why mathematicians and many others seem to be most creative early in life. Humans can become rigid in many ways as they advance beyond their learning-focused years, in any occupations that do not involve continuous learning and prefernce for learning over operating within the structures they have previously devised - the heuristics that seemed to give predictive value or reward. It's actually worse than that in outcome, as there are other heuristics and perceptual/behavioral limitations which can't be elaborated in a mere comment.
GM Chess & TaiQiGong Academy
thanks... worth the read 👍
Anchor Bait
Anchor Bait 4 yıl önce
To break even on rock paper scissors you should play randomly. But to win more rounds then you loose you have to preemptively play counter patterns to your opponent. Basically you have to get him thinking and using in game tactics and then play off that.
Patrick Fame
Patrick Fame 3 yıl önce
Excellent talk, went into more detail than expected :) Does someone know good resources regarding those topics? Specifically on gametheory in zero-sum games with many (more than 2) players?
Mark B
Mark B 2 yıl önce
Patrick Fame "Stategies and Games. Theory and Practice", Pratik Dutta
Uriah Mrache
Uriah Mrache 3 yıl önce
Saw this randomly in my feed (chuckle) and thought it looked interesting but had no intention of sitting here for an hour. I ended up being pasted to my screen for the entire thing completely entertained and happy for the education.
Kris Kong
Kris Kong 2 yıl önce
wait this took an hour ???
eddy la
eddy la 3 yıl önce
me too.... plus.... repeat, repeat......
Nox Obla
Nox Obla 3 yıl önce
Love the Mitsubishi add in the background. ;) Love seeing people talk about odds and betting strat. Personally I like 1/3 bets. If you can win half of them then there's a 50% win margin for 50% accuracy rate. It's still a gamble, though.
Beast
Beast 8 aylar önce
You however gave an great lecture as well as keeping me interested.
Gruntld
Gruntld 4 yıl önce
Thank you. This talk was very interesting and very comfortable to follow.
therasco400
therasco400 Yıl önce
Old vid but I played world of tanks where you get a random group of 29 other players, 14 on your team and 15 on the enemy. 49% of the time you will win if you do nothing (This is luck) the 51% chance to lose (draws where classed as losses) was only influenced by you. Some players have would have a win rate of 80% some would have a win rate of 48%. This is where skill comes in, you are mitigating your luck but no matter what you cannot always mitigate it. I imagine this is like poker where the cards you are dealt is your team and your ability to read/buff your opponents is your skill. While you can win the game on bad cards you cannot always rely on your skill 100% you need to get lucky.
K P
K P 3 yıl önce
I remember as a kid, some of us stole $20 worth of scratch and win lottery tickets, and didn't win anything. Karma taught me a lesson then, and stats is teaching me a lesson today.
a24396
a24396 3 yıl önce
As one of your cousins from "across the pond" I really am impressed with the high quality of your public discourse, I really wish there was a comparable public institution to The Royal Institution over here. Really quality stuff and excellent presenters. Thanks so much for posting!
a24396
a24396 3 yıl önce
@Magnus Gudmundsson Thanks! I'll check them out.
The Royal Institution
Thank you for your kinds words. We're very passionate about encouraging everyone to think more deeply about science and its place in our lives and we try to do this in part by widening access to science discourse. This is why we film and upload most of our public talks, why we create shorter videos and run a monthly podcast. Not everyone can come to our building in London, so we make sure you get almost the full experience online.
Gregg Weber
Gregg Weber 3 yıl önce
At 56:30: Many years ago I went to the barracks TV room & found a very good Chess player taking on all comers. I got in line & when it was my turn I played slowly. He got a bit upset. Every once in a while I couldn't think of a good move so moved something, anything. He reacted like one whose battle plan had to be scrapped. Eventually I looked around his King & saw that every square was covered. Finding something I could move & not block myself I did so & said "Mate". Surprise wasn't the word. He challenged me to a rematch & I knew (& said) that he was going to destroy me. He did but I won that first game because he played me wrong & my random moves fouled him up. I am not very good at Chess.
col rich
col rich 3 yıl önce
i had a theory in roulette that actually worked. It required patience, discipline and was really very boring because the winning was small. It also required the croupier to stay on the table for above ten spins. wait for the first 4 spins. then on the fifth spin onwards, the best number to bet on was the last winning number, and two numbers each side. 5 equal chips total. the ball eventually starts falling into that pattern. enough times for you to make it a profit for the evening. Even when the croupier puts on a reverse spin, and throws hard, whatever they do a pattern of consistency starts to form, something just falls into a pattern where those numbers come up enough for you to make a profit. The theory does not work with machines doing the spinning and ejecting the ball, nor if the croupier switches table too soon.
Right Angle Triangle
Right Angle Triangle 7 aylar önce
I like the concept of regret minimization for investing, also looking backward to improve trading or investing skills.
mtnairpilot
mtnairpilot 3 yıl önce
Speaking of the luck and skill boxes, we teach young aviators that they begin with a full bag of luck and an empty bag of skill and their goal is to fill the skill bag before their luck bag runs out.
Huzzir Zakaria
Huzzir Zakaria 9 aylar önce
Oh wow... Realities "knocked" me hard by this... Thanks for this advise, truly... ❤️
Kevin Bissinger
Kevin Bissinger 10 aylar önce
that's a fun way to cover beginner's luck
Joey murdaz Alotmore
On a macro level were doing that on this rock
Echad Lev Shtim
Echad Lev Shtim 4 yıl önce
The code on scratch offs were a thing. It had like a capital D for $2, $5 winners. I would assume they corrected it? You can see codes everywhere, like whether you got a rare in a booster pack in collector cards.
3 mOn3y
3 mOn3y Yıl önce
Excellent presentation thank you.
Zwölfenbein
Zwölfenbein 2 yıl önce
Interesting, in his book Super System Doyle Brunson got it wrong, he stats that he would always take a bet when the odds favor him. Still a great book!
Mark Chapman
Mark Chapman 2 yıl önce
For punters, the Mathematics Of Betting (table of odds and chances) is vital in understanding how to make a profit from sports gambling (investing). However, form is what makes any price value/a good bet.
TYLER O
TYLER O 6 aylar önce
This was a superb talk.
Robert Tinsley
Robert Tinsley 4 yıl önce
This video was better than I expected.
Darlene Bennett
Darlene Bennett Yıl önce
"Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections." An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
Generic Girl
Generic Girl 3 yıl önce
Yeah , if you ignore that thick accent.
Matt Rhodes
Matt Rhodes 3 yıl önce
Your expectations are my priority
kraljevo
kraljevo 3 yıl önce
@jayaybe1 Less so than it was.
jayaybe1
jayaybe1 3 yıl önce
How good did you expect it to be?
Matt Davis
Matt Davis Yıl önce
4:04 yes but you'd also win all the other tickets such as 5+bonus, 5, 4 and 3 ball combinations so it's not just about winning the top prize but winning ALL the prizes.
Thomas Galvin
Thomas Galvin Yıl önce
I love to play the big horse races like the Breeders Cup. Just play the favorites to come in after the long shots and you can really cash in big. I did this on the multi-race wagers and boy did it pay very well. The Breeders Cup is ideal as the payouts are in the millions. 🤓
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