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In statistical estimation theory, the German tank problem consists of estimating the maximum of a discrete uniform distribution from sampling without modification. Of course, counting tanks isn't its only use. They also counted the rockets with this method. It was tried to find out how many V1 and V2 rockets Germans produced. V2 is a very famous rocket by the way. The world's first long-range guided ballistic missile. In other words, it can even hit the United States, let alone England. But interestingly, it was easier to determine their number with this method than the previous generation V1.
The production is numbered in a simple continuous series and the final assembly number is stenciled or stamped on the various components. Since the date of assembly is not specified, the manufacturing time is placed between the due date on the component parts and the date the rocket launched. during the Second World War intelligence officers infiltrated enemy lines to find out how many tanks the Germans produced each month. But something extraordinary happened as well. Statisticians were also assigned to this task. Why statisticians? How can you find out how many tanks the Germans produced in a month from where you sit? Yes, it could indeed be done. This is exactly what makes this knowledge so powerful. The Germans overlooked how effective this could be of intelligence value. I'll explain how this is possible, but first let's play a guessing game with you.
Researched and Written by: Ögetay Kayalı
Organized and Presented by: Barış Özcan
Edited by: Alperen Çatak
The full text of the video and the sources used:
23 Haz 2023